iPhones have always carried a hefty price tag, but now, with new tariffs looming and President Donald Trump pushing for these devices to be made in the U.S., experts anticipate prices could climb even higher. On May 23, Trump took to social media to declare, “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones sold in the United States to be manufactured and built in the United States, not India or anywhere else. If that does not happen, Apple must pay a tariff of at least 25% to the U.S.”
However, industry analysts don’t see eye to eye on how steep this price increase might be or how soon Apple could realistically bring production stateside.
So, what might an iPhone cost under these new conditions?
Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, estimates that after tariffs, the cost to consumers could surge to around $2,300—almost double the price of Apple’s latest $1,199 model. Still, he says, that figure pales compared to the $3,500 price tag if Apple actually manufactured the iPhones domestically.
On the other hand, Drew DeLong, leader of the Geopolitical Dynamics Practice at consulting firm Kearney, sees a more modest hike—between $100 and $200—after tariffs. He points out that Apple might not need to worry much about reciprocal tariffs since the company has reportedly been largely exempt. Instead, DeLong emphasizes the ongoing U.S. investigation into imported semiconductors, which are crucial components largely produced overseas, as a bigger concern for Apple.
If Apple does move production to the U.S., DeLong notes that factors like the availability and cost of energy, as well as skilled labor, will heavily influence the company’s decisions. Tax cuts and deregulation efforts might help cushion some expenses, but the overall margins will still be in flux over the next several years.
What about the timeline? Will Apple actually start making iPhones on American soil anytime soon?
Ives is skeptical, calling the notion a “fairy tale” that’s not feasible. He predicts it could take Apple anywhere from five to ten years to even begin shifting production. While the company has pledged to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, most of that funding will target AI and related technologies, not smartphone manufacturing. “The cost structure is upside down, and the supply chain logistics would be Herculean,” Ives explains.
DeLong offers a somewhat different view, suggesting the process might be faster, pointing to Apple’s planned server manufacturing plant in Houston, Texas, set to open in 2026. He adds that conversations within the administration indicate a strong desire to see such projects completed within this presidential term.
Back in Trump’s first term, he claimed Apple CEO Tim Cook promised to build three manufacturing plants in the U.S., and the company was granted tariff exemptions. Yet, none of those smartphone factories ever materialized.
How might Trump actually make Apple pay more tariffs?
In April, the Trump administration clarified tariff exemptions for smartphones via a presidential memo. Apple, anticipating tariff impacts, has already started shifting some U.S.-bound iPhone production from China to India. On a recent earnings call, Tim Cook confirmed the goal to have most iPhones sold in the U.S. imported from India by year-end.
Nikolas Guggenberger, a law professor at the University of Houston, explains that Trump’s recent social media statements signal intent rather than formal policy. “It’s like announcing a plan but still needing to follow formal legal channels,” he says.
The simplest way for Trump to push Apple toward higher tariffs would be to eliminate the reciprocal tariff exemptions altogether. Alternatively, if targeting Apple specifically, the president could impose tariffs solely on smartphones imported from India, where Apple plans to concentrate production for the U.S. market.
For now, Apple’s future iPhone pricing and manufacturing strategy remain uncertain, caught between geopolitical pressures, evolving trade policies, and the complexities of global supply chains.
