The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed that Tropical Storm Andrea became the first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on June 24, though it may have a short lifespan.
Current Status & Forecast
As of Tuesday morning, Andrea was spinning in the open Atlantic Ocean, posing no immediate threat to the U.S. mainland. Key details:
- Location: ~1,205 miles west of the Azores
- Max Winds: 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts
- Movement: East-northeast at a steady pace
- Expected Weakening: Begins Tuesday night, with dissipation likely by Wednesday night
While Andrea is not a major concern, its formation marks the start of what forecasters predict will be an active and potentially dangerous hurricane season.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
- Season Duration: June 1 – November 30
- Peak Activity: Around September 10, with the most storms typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October
- Historical Data: 97% of tropical cyclones form within this window, per NOAA
Tracking Tropical Storm Andrea
Forecast Path & Uncertainty
- The NHC’s tracking cone shows the most likely path of the storm’s center but does not account for its full width or impacts.
- The storm’s center may deviate outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Spaghetti Models: A Range of Possibilities
- Multiple forecast models predict Andrea’s trajectory, but not all are equally reliable.
- The NHC prioritizes the top four or five highest-performing models for accuracy.
NHC Also Monitoring Potential Pacific System
In addition to Andrea, the NHC is tracking a developing low-pressure system in the eastern Pacific, located a few hundred miles off Central America.
Key Details:
- Current State: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms
- Development Potential: 70% chance of forming into a tropical depression by the weekend
- Movement: Slow west-northwest drift near southern Mexico’s coast
Pacific Storm Tracker Notes
- Similar to Atlantic tracking, the forecast cone indicates the most probable path but not the storm’s full scope.
- The actual storm center may shift outside the cone about a third of the time.
What This Means for the 2025 Hurricane Season
Andrea’s early formation aligns with predictions of an above-average hurricane season, driven by factors like:
- Warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures
- Favorable wind patterns for storm development
Residents in hurricane-prone regions should stay alert, as more systems are likely to follow.
Final Outlook
- Andrea’s Impact: Minimal, expected to dissipate soon
- Pacific System: Could strengthen into the next tropical depression
- Seasonal Preparedness: Now is the time to review emergency plans