In 2022, Oregon State capped off its best football season in 16 years with a 9-3 record and a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. But if a 16-team College Football Playoff had existed then, the Beavers wouldn’t have just earned a bowl berth—they would have been in the national title hunt.
Now, with conference commissioners discussing the playoff format for 2026 and beyond, momentum is steadily building toward expanding the playoff from 12 to 16 teams. That slight shift would drastically change the landscape, opening the door for three-loss teams from every corner of the country.
Until the expansion to 12 teams, no two-loss team had ever cracked the playoff. And to date, no three-loss program has been given that chance. But when I analyzed the past 11 seasons using a hypothetical 16-team bracket with a 5+11 format, at least two three-loss teams would’ve made the field every single year.
This 5+11 model—favored by the Big 12 and ACC and gaining traction with the SEC—would guarantee spots for the top five conference champions, with the remaining 11 slots filled via at-large bids. Meanwhile, the Big Ten backs an alternate version that leans even more heavily on automatic qualifiers. For consistency, I stuck with the 5+11 approach in my analysis.
The process wasn’t simple. Realignment has scrambled the college football map, so I sorted teams based on where they’ll play in 2026. For instance, any Texas bid counted toward the SEC, and Oregon’s counted for the Big Ten. In years where future SEC members like Oklahoma or Texas won the Big 12, I awarded the Big 12’s automatic bid to the runner-up. In other seasons, teams like Central Florida or Cincinnati earned those bids when they were ranked high and won conference titles. Assigning the Group of Six’s auto-bid proved tricky in some years due to shifting affiliations.
While different analysts might tweak the criteria slightly, the takeaway is clear: a 16-team playoff would have consistently rewarded strong three-loss teams. Last season alone, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina—all with three losses—would have made the cut.
The real beneficiaries of this expanded field? The SEC and Big Ten, which would likely scoop up the majority of those additional at-large spots. But the ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 remnants, and Notre Dame would benefit too. In 2014, no fewer than seven three-loss teams across the Power Four would’ve gotten in under the 5+11 structure. And for the first time, even four-loss teams would’ve been playoff-bound—Auburn (2016), Stanford (2017), and Texas (2018) were ranked high enough to qualify.
Once you get to 16 teams, the playoff is no longer an exclusive club. Programs like Kentucky, Northwestern, UCLA, Washington State, and Georgia Tech—alongside traditional giants like Alabama and Michigan—would all have seen playoff action. Mississippi’s Lane Kiffin, a vocal supporter of the expanded format, summed it up: “Sixteen teams, you’d get more people excited about it, more people in play.”
More importantly, more teams would remain in contention deeper into the season. “The 12-team playoff created a lot of interest,” said Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark. “Going to 16 teams, I think, there’s more of that.”
Under the four-team system, only elite juggernauts—Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson—regularly made the cut. The 16-team playoff would open the bracket to mid-tier and emerging programs. Suddenly, a 9-3 season might mean more than just a decent bowl—it could mean a shot at a national title.
Twice in the past decade, blue bloods like Alabama, Michigan, and Notre Dame would have barely made the field as last-four-in teams. Northwestern, believe it or not, would’ve done it twice too. And Ole Miss? They would’ve been among the final four teams in three separate seasons—the biggest beneficiary of the expansion.
So is it any surprise Kiffin’s on board?
Let’s break down some eye-opening takeaways from this 11-year projection under the 5+11 model:
- Alabama and Ohio State would have qualified every year.
- Georgia would’ve made it nine times, and Clemson eight.
- Notre Dame would have punched in seven bids.
- The Big Ten would’ve led all conferences with 53 bids, followed by the SEC’s 51.
- Every SEC team except Arkansas and Vanderbilt would’ve qualified at least once.
- Twelve of the Big Ten’s 18 teams would’ve made it.
- The SEC peaked with seven bids in 2018 and 2023, never falling below three.
- The Big Ten never dipped below four and hit as high as six in a single season.
- Over 30 different programs would have landed as last-four-in selections at least once.
It’s no wonder the push for 16 is gaining steam. The extra spots wouldn’t just help the usual suspects—they’d create real chances for teams that once had none.
The College Football Playoff is shedding its elitist skin. The future? A landscape where 9-3 doesn’t mean a forgotten season, but a golden opportunity.
