UFC 317 Fight Night Preview: Key Bets & Predictions
Event Details:
- Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Broadcast: Prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 PM ET), Main Card PPV (10:00 PM ET)
Featured Bout: Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado
Fight Breakdown:
This featherweight clash pits undefeated pressure fighter Amil against the surging Delgado, who rides a six-fight win streak. While both fighters boast high striking output (6.5+ significant strikes per minute), the real value lies in the fight’s duration.
Key Factors:
- Amil’s relentless pace and 80% takedown defense make him durable
- Delgado has never been finished, with all wins coming inside distance
- Both have shown championship stamina in past bouts
Expert Pick: Fight to go Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)
Bantamweight Showdown: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Odds Analysis:
Talbott enters as a surprising underdog (+152) after being -1000 favorite in his last outing. This presents prime value against the aggressive but defensively porous Lima.
Style Matchup:
- Talbott: Technical striker with 70″+ reach advantage
- Lima: Wild brawler with 90% finish rate
Best Bet: Talbott Moneyline (+152)
Lightweight Battle: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Tale of the Tape:
Originally scheduled for UFC 311, this rescheduled fight features two veterans at career crossroads. Dariush’s wrestling (3.7 takedown attempts per 5 minutes) could be the difference maker.
Betting Insight:
- 66% of public bets on Moicano despite even odds
- Dariush’s grappling control (82%) neutralizes Moicano’s submission game
Smart Play: Dariush by Decision (+180)
Undercard Gem
Nate Maness vs. Qileng Aori
Maness’ volume striking (6.8 significant strikes per minute) should dictate this prelim bout.
Value Pick: Maness by Decision (+160)
Betting Summary
- Main Card Parlay:
- Amil/Delgado Over 1.5 Rounds
- Talbott ML
- Dariush ML
Odds: +650 (1 unit)
- Prop Special:
Ignacio Bahamondes to win Inside Distance (-110)
Final Thoughts:
UFC 317 offers several intriguing betting opportunities beyond the headline fights. The Talbott underdog position and Dariush’s grappling advantage present particularly compelling value in what promises to be an action-packed night.