Whenever Christine Goulet, Director of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Science Center in Los Angeles, mentions her job, the questions inevitably follow:
“When is the next big earthquake coming? Where will it hit? Should we be preparing now?”
“If I got paid every time someone asked, I’d be wealthy,” Goulet quips. Yet despite her expertise, predicting the precise moment and location of an earthquake remains impossible.
What she can say is chilling: The Big One is coming. And it could strike at any moment.
Even more unsettling, there’s not just one “Big One” to worry about—there are several possible catastrophic scenarios.
“It could happen in the next minute, next hour, tomorrow, or next week,” Goulet explains. “We simply don’t know. But we do know we need to be prepared.”
The most credible research to date, a 2015 USGS study, still holds true: California has a near-certain chance of experiencing a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake in the next 30 years. High-risk zones include major population centers like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Meanwhile, the massive Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Northwest simmers quietly—another threat waiting to erupt.
Bay Area’s Shaky Future
With nearly 50 fault lines stretching from Napa to Monterey, the San Francisco Bay Area is on unstable ground. USGS estimates a 72% chance of a 6.7+ magnitude quake by 2043. There’s also a 51% likelihood of a magnitude 7 quake, and a 20% chance of a devastating 7.5 or stronger.
“The earthquake threat is very real,” warns Richard Allen, UC Berkeley professor and director of the Berkeley Seismology Lab. “But while we must plan for the long term, we shouldn’t live paralyzed by fear.”
In December, a 7.0 quake along Northern California’s sparsely populated coast sparked tsunami alerts stretching from Oregon to San Francisco. Public relations professional Traci Grant, 53, was at home in San Francisco when the tremors hit.
“My retrofitted apartment started swaying in slow motion,” she said. “It just kept going. Scary, yes, but also kind of thrilling.”
The quake produced over 50 aftershocks within four hours. Fortunately, no major injuries or destruction were reported. But as Goulet pointed out, had it hit directly beneath a population center, the consequences would’ve been dire.
That quake triggered memories of the catastrophic 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, which killed roughly 3,000 and destroyed 80% of the city. Or the deadly 1868 Hayward Fault earthquake, which took 30 lives. Allen says the data points to one conclusion: The Bay Area is overdue.
More recently, Napa’s 2014 6.0 quake caused over $1 billion in damages and injured 300 people. The infamous 1989 Loma Prieta quake—which struck during the World Series—killed 63 and injured nearly 3,800, causing widespread destruction.
“People think major quakes are frequent,” Goulet says. “They’re actually rare. But we have no way of knowing when the next one will hit.”
Los Angeles: A Ticking Time Bomb
Southern California isn’t spared either. USGS estimates a 60% chance of a 6.7 quake, and a 46% likelihood of a 7.0, within 30 years. For a 7.5, there’s a 31% chance.
“Southern California faces just as much risk—maybe even more,” Allen says.
With nearly 19 million people in the L.A. metro area, Goulet warns that a powerful quake could be catastrophic. She points to the 1994 Northridge quake, a 6.7 that killed 60 and injured 7,000. It caused between $13 to $20 billion in damage, toppling buildings and leaving thousands homeless.
“The more populated the area, the greater the devastation,” Goulet emphasizes.
She also recalls being on-site during the 2019 Ridgecrest quakes, when a 6.4 was followed by a jarring 7.1 just two days later.
“We were collecting measurements when the second quake hit—just six miles from us,” she said. “It was terrifying.”
This is why precise prediction isn’t feasible—but probability analysis and preparation are vital tools.
How to Get Ready for The Big One
While earthquakes can’t be prevented, preparation can mean the difference between safety and tragedy. Experts offer practical, actionable tips:
- Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Don’t run outside. Most injuries occur from broken glass or falls.
- Create a family earthquake plan. Designate a meeting point and prep a go-bag with essentials.
- Expect utilities to fail. Stock up on flashlights, power banks, water, and food.
- Send texts, not calls. Texts are more likely to go through during disasters.
- Buy a weather radio with hand-crank power. It keeps phones charged even during blackouts.
- Keep cash. Card readers might not work.
- Secure heavy furniture. Fasten bookshelves and cabinets to walls.
- Download an earthquake alert app. Even a few seconds’ notice can save lives.
- Practice annual earthquake drills. It reinforces safety habits.
- Consider earthquake insurance. It can offer peace of mind and financial security.
As experts stress, earthquakes are an unavoidable part of life on the West Coast. But being unprepared doesn’t have to be.
