For the seventh straight season, the NBA is guaranteed a new champion—no team has successfully defended a title since Golden State’s back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2018. Adding to that trend, for the sixth year running, neither conference has seen a repeat finalist. This year, the spotlight shines on an intriguing Finals matchup: the Oklahoma City Thunder versus the Indiana Pacers. The series tips off Thursday night in Oklahoma City at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. For the Thunder, this is a chance to claim their first championship since their days as the Seattle SuperSonics in 1979. Meanwhile, the Pacers are vying for their inaugural NBA title since joining the league from the ABA in 1976.
This matchup highlights the rise of smaller or mid-sized markets, far from the glitzy, big-market teams that have traditionally dominated the Finals over the past two decades. The last Finals featuring comparable market sizes date back to 2007 with the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers. Notably, both Oklahoma City and Indiana operate under the luxury tax, proving success doesn’t always hinge on spending the most.
Now, let’s break down the key matchups and assess which team holds the advantage.
Backcourt Battle: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton
This showdown is a mesmerizing duel between two dynamic guards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who earned his first MVP this season, is a scoring powerhouse with impressive passing skills. In the playoffs, he’s averaged nearly 30 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds per game, shooting a smooth 47.1% from the field. Opposite him stands Tyrese Haliburton, a crafty two-time All-Star, who’s a pass-first guard with a scoring touch, averaging almost 19 points and nearly 10 assists per game, while shooting 46.6%. Though they won’t guard each other exclusively—Indiana likes to push the pace and will deploy Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith to defend Gilgeous-Alexander fullcourt—this backcourt battle is a captivating contrast in styles.
Oklahoma City boasts solid depth with players like Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace, while Indiana counters with Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Nembhard, and Nesmith supporting Haliburton. This positional depth could prove pivotal.
Frontcourt Faceoff: Jalen Williams vs. Pascal Siakam
Both squads are anchored by versatile frontcourt stars who excel on offense and defense. Jalen Williams and Pascal Siakam bring relentless energy and skill to the court, both having emerged from lesser-known college programs—Williams from Santa Clara and Siakam from New Mexico State. The way these two battle inside and out will be a fascinating subplot throughout the series.
Oklahoma City’s roster also features Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, whose savvy play has been instrumental in both offense and defense. Indiana counters with sharpshooters and tough rebounders like Myles Turner, Obi Toppin, and Thomas Bryant, who excel in stretching the floor with their three-point shooting and physicality.
Edge: Thunder — Their frontcourt’s blend of youth, athleticism, and experience slightly tips the scale.
Bench Depth
Both teams boast impressive benches and can roll out 10 players effectively. While rotations tighten during the playoffs, key reserves like Thomas Bryant for Indiana and Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, and Aaron Wiggins for Oklahoma City provide valuable versatility and energy. Coaches from both sides trust their benches to step up in high-pressure moments.
Edge: Thunder — Their bench depth has shown a tad more consistency throughout the season.
Coaching Duel: Rick Carlisle vs. Mark Daigneault
Rick Carlisle, guiding the Pacers, is no stranger to Finals basketball. This marks his second Finals appearance as head coach, with a championship under his belt from 2011 with the Dallas Mavericks. Known for his offensive ingenuity and adaptability across eras and personnel, Carlisle boasts an even 83-83 playoff record over 16 appearances.
Mark Daigneault, the reigning 2023-24 Coach of the Year, has transformed the Thunder impressively since taking over in 2020-21. Under his leadership, the team has risen from just 22 wins to a franchise-best 68 victories this season. The Thunder rank first in defense, third in offense, and top the league in net rating. Daigneault’s emphasis on team chemistry and defense has paid dividends, as reflected in his 18-8 playoff record.
Edge: Pacers — Carlisle’s Finals experience and tactical acumen give Indiana a slight advantage.
Three-Point Shooting
Both teams can fire away from deep, but the Pacers hold the edge here. Indiana leads the playoffs with an average of 13.4 made three-pointers per game, connecting on a scorching 40.1% from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City isn’t far behind, averaging 12.6 threes per game but at a lower 33.6% clip. The Thunder’s defensive prowess, especially their ability to disrupt opponents’ strengths, will be crucial in trying to contain Indiana’s sharpshooting.
Edge: Pacers — Their three-point shooting prowess could be a decisive factor.
Bonus: City Life
Both Indianapolis and Oklahoma City shine as vibrant heartland cities. Indianapolis leans more Midwest, while Oklahoma City carries a Southwest vibe. Both thrive on industries like agriculture, tech, medicine, oil, and boast nearby universities that fuel growth. They also share a rich cultural scene with top-tier music acts, arts, and culinary talents recognized nationally, including chefs honored by the James Beard Foundation.
Edge: Even — Both cities bring unique charm and support their teams passionately.
Overall Edge: Pacers vs. Thunder
While the Thunder were the dominant team all season and have carried that momentum into the playoffs, the Pacers have shown impressive growth and resilience these past two years. Still, from the very first tip-off back in October, it seemed like Oklahoma City was destined for this moment. This series promises thrilling basketball as two hardworking, savvy teams from smaller markets vie for NBA glory.
